The 2016 NBA Draft is shaping up to be a rare instance in which almost the entire spotlight rests on one player. When LeBron James was drafted in 2003, the build-up was all about James and Carmelo Anthony; when Kevin Durant was selected in 2007 he actually went behind Greg Oden; and even the Anthony Davis draft a few years ago was largely about the duo coming off a national championship at Kentucky, including both Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. This year will be more like the 2009 draft in which Blake Griffin was the clear top prize, only the emphasis on #1 will be even more significant.
LSU forward Ben Simmons is far and away the best prospect set to enter the NBA this summer. It's truly not even close, to the point that ESPN's draft prep section recently dedicated an entire article to multiple teams' focus on this one player. Rather than looking at detailed lottery projections or which prospective draftees different teams might target, the focus was simple: What's the best fit for Ben Simmons?
This attention is completely fair. By multiple metrics, Simmons is the best college basketball player we've seen in years, if not the entire one-and-done era. But no matter how good he is, the 2016 NBA Draft will still see 30 players drafted in the first round. Twenty-nine NBA teams will emerge without Ben Simmons, and 60 new players will get a shot at professional basketball. So in the interest of inclusion, here's a look at five fun draft scenarios to watch for this spring and summer, only one of which involves Simmons.
1. Philadelphia Trades Its Pick
Philadelphia will almost certainly finish with the worst record in the league and thus the best odds of the #1 pick. If they get that #1 pick, they're not trading it for entire organizations—they're drafting Ben Simmons. But let's remember that the worst team gets a 25% shot at the top pick, which means there's a 75% chance they don't get it.
And this draft appears weak enough beneath Simmons that the Sixers will sooner trade anything lower than #1 rather than risk another pick not working out. Nerlens Noel (a draft day trade acquisition) looks mediocre, Michael Carter-Williams was shipped out of town, Dario Saric has yet to step foot in the U.S., and Joel Embiid hasn't played a minute due to injury. Only Jahlil Okafor has been a consistently exciting pick from their rebuilding era, but he has had some issues off the court that raise concerns about his long-term success in Philadelphia. With Jerry Colangelo now assisting the front office, we can expect a new strategy.
2. Boston Snags Simmons
The Celtics have a chance to seriously luck out this summer, given that they're actually in the midst of a decent season. In fact, Betfair's sports pages list the Celtics with a pretty strong chance of topping a division that was once thought to be the Raptors' to lose. The Celtics have the second best odds to win the Atlantic, and the Raptors recently lost DeMarre Carroll to knee surgery.
That means Boston could be a division winner, a playoff team, and the recipient of a high draft pick earned by the Brooklyn Nets (who owe the Celtics their top 2016 pick and are on track to finish with one of the NBA's worst records). Boston may just get lucky, or it may get a #2 or #3 pick and trade a whole heap of assets along with it to move up for Simmons.
3. A College Veteran Goes In The Top-Five
Not since Victor Oladipo in 2013 has a player with more than a year of college experience been drafted in the top-five. But without a truly elite one-and-done candidate behind Simmons and only one international player with top-five potential (Croatia's Dragan Bender), we'll see a college veteran go in the top-five once more. Strong candidates include Kris Dunn (Providence), Jakob Poeltl (Utah), Buddy Hield (Oklahoma), and Domantas Sabonis (Gonzaga).
4. The Lakers Shock Everyone
There's not a lot of substance to this idea. But if the Lakers don't luck out with Ben Simmons, expect them to do something unorthodox. Kobe Bryant is retiring, the organization needs to restructure, and again, there's no sure thing beneath Simmons in this draft. Rather than take the obvious pick (as of now, Duke's Brandon Ingram and Cal's Jaylen Brown are the next best prospects), expect the Lakers to go for more of a high risk/high reward player, or to trade down to collect more assets. One name to keep in mind here will be Bender. The Lakers missed out on Kristaps Porzingis in the 2015 draft and may be tempted to take the riskier international prospect this time around.
5. New Orleans Takes Kris Dunn
New Orleans is in line for a surprisingly high draft pick given that they've underachieved pretty drastically this season. Simmons is a long shot here though, so the Pelicans will have to get creative—and this is where potential top-five veteran Kris Dunn, a senior at Providence, may come into play. Dunn is ranked as the #4 prospect by DraftExpress, and he's clearly the best point guard in the NCAA (with the size to play the position in the NBA). That ought to look like solid gold to New Orleans.
A mix of the oft-injured Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans handling the ball just hasn't been healthy for the development of Anthony Davis, so it's a good bet the Pelicans will be looking for guard help. And by securing a mature, veteran point guard rather than an unproven prospect with a high ceiling (such as Ingram, Brown, or Kentucky guard Jamal Murray), they may just be able to skip a year or two of development and maximize their potential with Davis.
This attention is completely fair. By multiple metrics, Simmons is the best college basketball player we've seen in years, if not the entire one-and-done era. But no matter how good he is, the 2016 NBA Draft will still see 30 players drafted in the first round. Twenty-nine NBA teams will emerge without Ben Simmons, and 60 new players will get a shot at professional basketball. So in the interest of inclusion, here's a look at five fun draft scenarios to watch for this spring and summer, only one of which involves Simmons.
1. Philadelphia Trades Its Pick
Philadelphia will almost certainly finish with the worst record in the league and thus the best odds of the #1 pick. If they get that #1 pick, they're not trading it for entire organizations—they're drafting Ben Simmons. But let's remember that the worst team gets a 25% shot at the top pick, which means there's a 75% chance they don't get it.
And this draft appears weak enough beneath Simmons that the Sixers will sooner trade anything lower than #1 rather than risk another pick not working out. Nerlens Noel (a draft day trade acquisition) looks mediocre, Michael Carter-Williams was shipped out of town, Dario Saric has yet to step foot in the U.S., and Joel Embiid hasn't played a minute due to injury. Only Jahlil Okafor has been a consistently exciting pick from their rebuilding era, but he has had some issues off the court that raise concerns about his long-term success in Philadelphia. With Jerry Colangelo now assisting the front office, we can expect a new strategy.
2. Boston Snags Simmons
The Celtics have a chance to seriously luck out this summer, given that they're actually in the midst of a decent season. In fact, Betfair's sports pages list the Celtics with a pretty strong chance of topping a division that was once thought to be the Raptors' to lose. The Celtics have the second best odds to win the Atlantic, and the Raptors recently lost DeMarre Carroll to knee surgery.
That means Boston could be a division winner, a playoff team, and the recipient of a high draft pick earned by the Brooklyn Nets (who owe the Celtics their top 2016 pick and are on track to finish with one of the NBA's worst records). Boston may just get lucky, or it may get a #2 or #3 pick and trade a whole heap of assets along with it to move up for Simmons.
3. A College Veteran Goes In The Top-Five
Not since Victor Oladipo in 2013 has a player with more than a year of college experience been drafted in the top-five. But without a truly elite one-and-done candidate behind Simmons and only one international player with top-five potential (Croatia's Dragan Bender), we'll see a college veteran go in the top-five once more. Strong candidates include Kris Dunn (Providence), Jakob Poeltl (Utah), Buddy Hield (Oklahoma), and Domantas Sabonis (Gonzaga).
4. The Lakers Shock Everyone
There's not a lot of substance to this idea. But if the Lakers don't luck out with Ben Simmons, expect them to do something unorthodox. Kobe Bryant is retiring, the organization needs to restructure, and again, there's no sure thing beneath Simmons in this draft. Rather than take the obvious pick (as of now, Duke's Brandon Ingram and Cal's Jaylen Brown are the next best prospects), expect the Lakers to go for more of a high risk/high reward player, or to trade down to collect more assets. One name to keep in mind here will be Bender. The Lakers missed out on Kristaps Porzingis in the 2015 draft and may be tempted to take the riskier international prospect this time around.
5. New Orleans Takes Kris Dunn
New Orleans is in line for a surprisingly high draft pick given that they've underachieved pretty drastically this season. Simmons is a long shot here though, so the Pelicans will have to get creative—and this is where potential top-five veteran Kris Dunn, a senior at Providence, may come into play. Dunn is ranked as the #4 prospect by DraftExpress, and he's clearly the best point guard in the NCAA (with the size to play the position in the NBA). That ought to look like solid gold to New Orleans.
A mix of the oft-injured Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans handling the ball just hasn't been healthy for the development of Anthony Davis, so it's a good bet the Pelicans will be looking for guard help. And by securing a mature, veteran point guard rather than an unproven prospect with a high ceiling (such as Ingram, Brown, or Kentucky guard Jamal Murray), they may just be able to skip a year or two of development and maximize their potential with Davis.
Moonlighting as a blogger to pursue my interest and enjoyment of sports. Former high school and Division I athlete (now a "retired" family man) that loves watching and discussing all sports. Follow me on Twitter (@HoldoutSports) and like Holdout Sports on Facebook.
