NFL expert picks tend to focus on the most sensible bets to make. However, some experts are more skilled at identifying games where an underdog might prevail. Ultimately, there is no surefire way of successfully betting on an underdog, but that does not mean it is an impossible task.
Spotting patterns in underdog wins in the NFL is the best place to start. Generally, a favorite may be in a weaker position in a given week due to injuries or loss of rhythm, increasing the possibility of an upset to be in the cards. At other times, underdog wins in the NFL come entirely at random. Nonetheless, we have explored some of the best and most exciting underdog wins in NFL history that may help you place underdog bets in the future.
Seattle Seahawks over Denver Broncos (Super Bowl XLVIII)
The Denver Broncos were not huge favorites against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII. Still, most experts expected the Broncos to push through with legendary quarterback Peyton Manning leading the way. Unfortunately, the Broncos had a Super Bowl to forget as the Seahawks top-ranked defense created four turnovers. By halftime, the Seahawks had a 22-0 lead, defying most of the pregame predictions by quite some way.The Broncos rallied toward the end of the game to avoid a shutout, but it was too little, too late. The Seahawks, along with their linebacker MVP Malcolm Smith, pulled off an upset nobody saw coming, winning by a final score of 43-8.
Kansas City Chiefs over San Francisco 49ers (Super Bowl LIV)
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the odds a few years ago at Super Bowl LIV to win their first Lombardi Trophy since 1970 against the San Francisco 49ers. After their convincing road to the Super Bowl, the West Coast franchise looked like heavy favorites, but it all came crashing down in the final quarter.Amazingly, the Chiefs scored three touchdowns in just over six minutes to come from behind and take a 31-20 lead in the game’s closing stages. Patrick Mahomes was the man to thank, as his athleticism and long-range throwing saw him named MVP. As you can imagine, the excitement in the Chiefs camp after winning their first Super Bowl in 50 years in such dramatic fashion was palpable.
New England Patriots over St Louis Rams (Super Bowl XXXVI)
The New England Patriots had enjoyed nowhere close to the same level of success before 2002 as they had in the past two decades. Their thrilling game against the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI was the beginning of their successful dynasty in many ways. It is notable for several reasons, but mainly because it was the first Super Bowl to be won on the final play of the game, with Adam Vinatieri kicking the game-winning field goal as time expired to win it.Even more significantly, Super Bowl XXXVI put a young Tom Brady on the map as he began his reign as arguably the best NFL quarterback of all time. A relevant unknown heading into the season, he came off the bench to fill the shoes of the injured Drew Bledsoe during the season. Nobody expected him to lead the Pats to the playoffs, let alone power the Patriots to an incredibly exciting Super Bowl underdog victory. In the end, the heavily favored Rams lost out on their second Super Bowl win in 3 seasons.
New York Giants over New England Patriots (Super Bowl XLII)
As much as the Patriots were the underdogs during Super Bowl XXXVI, they were heavy favorites in 2008 after several years of undisputed success. Tom Brady and company were also aiming to complete the first undefeated season in the NFL since the Miami Dolphins in 1972. The Patriots were 18-0 heading into the Super Bowl, but the New York Giants had other ideas.Tom Brady had been the difference for the Patriots on countless occasions before Super Bowl XLII, but this time, it was Giants quarterback Eli Manning’s time to shine. Manning became the Super Bowl MVP, and David Tyree made the famous "helmet catch" on the game-winning drive. In the end, the Giants won the game by a final of 17-14 in one of the most significant upsets in NFL history.